Winter Solstice is here (across the Northern Hemisphere). The days are short, the weather colder, fuel and energy needs increase. These challenges strike me right now as symbolic, matching the major challenge of this historical moment: the chance we have to turn toward the light represented by solar and other renewable energy sources.
As our technology has become increasingly powerful since the industrial revolution, the impact of our choices in technology development has become cumulative, stretching not just through each year’s harvest, but for generations. Now, advances in renewable energy offer us an opportunity to choose development that will benefit future generations. If we make the right choices, history will see this time as the turning point, away from the environmental degradation of the fossil fuel era, giving generations to come an increasingly balanced natural environment.
From Burning Stuff to Star Power
Humanity has benefitted enormously from the technology of setting things on fire. There is a good case made that the act of repeatedly gathering around a fire fostered development of community and cooperation. From that, knowledge sharing enabled advancement of technologies, which initially focused on agriculture but expanded in all directions, eventually.
Over time, technology advances increasingly focused on harnessing and using energy, but until very recently all energy projects were based on burning fuel. From sticks in a campfire, to extreme techniques of extracting, transporting, and processing substances into more efficient fuel, the ultimate generation of usable energy came with the ignition of the fuel. However, over time we came to see that the combustion of materials has consequences. The lessons of the harm from igniting fuel over generations are clear now—we have created threats to the very environment we depend on to live.
Only relatively recently have we seen the possibility of another way. Efficiency advancements have been increasing dramatically on the renewable side over the last 20 years, whereas the significant efficiency advances in fossil fuel extraction, refinement, and delivery have now long since passed. Once we factor in the documented risk to future generations from continuing in combustion-based energy dependence, the cost balance tips obviously in favor of renewable energy.
The graphic here is impressive, but its measurement is actually skewed in favor of the fossil fuel model, by using as a common measurement the price of new power plants. Power plants were the product of the last technological revolution; solar energy is far more efficient when it is installed as close to its point of use as possible (for example, on rooftops). When you consider that added efficiency, the comparison is even more impressive.
Seizing Opportunities
The monumental shift to renewable technology now requires proving that the new infrastructure works. A critical key to success lies in the demonstration of economic advantages. One major issue that impedes progress is the financing model. Right now, every property owner has to make a go/no-go decision on solar, each facing the up-front costs individually. And every solar installation company has to pursue installations one property at a time—a very costly problem for the installers. This means (1) no renter can benefit from the lower cost of electricity that solar sourcing brings without an independent decision from the landlord, and (2) only property owners who can afford a long-term return on investment can consider going forward. Although the benefits (emissions reduction for all, cost reduction for bill-paying users) are largely public, the costs must be fully absorbed by private interests. This needs to be turned on its head, to where the public sector makes it attractive to move ahead with these transitions. For instance, if local municipal agencies could create pools (such as a city block) of residences for an installer’s bid, it could reduce the price of the installations for all by concentrating efficiency of effort in sales (bidding on a block of work instead of each individual property in that block), as well as the installation by bringing whatever scale could come with many installations in a small area.
Ticking Clock
The scientists have told us that if we want to keep on track to the targets set in the Paris Accord seven years ago, we must halve emissions by 2030. The renowned renewable energy advocate Bill McKibben wrote a piece several years ago stating that the effort needed to combat climate change would be comparable to the effort it took to win World War II. While others have pointed out enough faults in that analogy that even he uses a bit softer language now, there is no question that it will take a massive effort to prioritize this transition. Leaving all decisions to individual consumers would almost certainly come up short; large-scale programs will be necessary to make this transition.
Removing Obstacles
As individuals, we need to pressure leaders at every level, local, state, and national, to step up to fight for prioritizing the transition away from fossil fuel dependence. Some of the biggest obstacles to this transition lie in the immediate, and often local, mechanisms that make it difficult to install solar. Disabling spurious challenges to renewable energy conversion is crucial. It is high time we recognize, at an institutional level, that the disinformation-and-delay army of the fossil fuel industry is at work, using every means available to delay conversion away from dependence on their product (and their profits), often invoking the cause of “local control” and even, ironically, by demanding environmental impact reviews.
Clearing the Path
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 contained by far the biggest incentives to the renewable technology development and deployment in history. Those incentives are perhaps more patchwork than perfect, but nevertheless, businesses across the country are scrambling to take best advantage of these incentives. Intelligent choices by local government to align with these incentives will determine where the success stories appear.
Speaking with Ezra Klein of the New York Times, Bill McKibben said, “My guess is that the limiting factors are going to be, A, whether we can overcome the fossil fuel industry’s meddling, and, B, whether we can build out, above all, the human capital that we need. I mean, the best estimate is it’s going to take at least a million more electricians in the U.S. If you know a young person who wants to do something that’s going to help the world and wants to make a good living at the same time, tell them to go become an electrician.”
Meddling from the fossil fuel industry is a significant force. It is well documented that the industry invested heavily in seeding doubt across the public as to the viability of renewables, redeploying tactics (and even the same consultants) the tobacco industry used to fight the demise of that harm-based business in the face of overwhelming evidence of the impact of their products. Doubt can be powerful; foreign (and some domestic) interests have been cultivating mistrust in all politics to try to influence elections in the US, and beyond, for some time.
We can now see hope in signs of a sea change in public attitudes, making these tactics less and less effective over time. Starting in 2020, voters have, overall, moved toward supporting candidates who offer demonstrable competence over those cultivating grievance and malice toward government in general. The stronger-than-predicted overall showing for Democrats in the 2022 elections suggest that the public as a whole is responding positively to programs designed to spread opportunity. If in the short term, people see renewable installations that deliver on the economic and efficiency promises that have been made (but mostly not yet demonstrated) for years, and offer work opportunities, politicians will simply have to get on the train that is moving forward.
Individual choices certainly play a role. McKibben’s exhortation that becoming an electrician is environmentally helpful and a viable career path is one good example for those who are considering career choices. Relegating environmental protection to individual consumer choices (do I buy an electric car? How high do I set my home thermostat?) is a tactic the fossil fuel has propagated, distracting from their flood of marketing that promotes powerful (fuel-guzzling) vehicles and absolute comfort for everyone, at every turn. Exerting pressure on representatives in office, to instill institutional awareness of the urgency of this transition, is a choice available to each of us.
The Chicken and Egg Working Together
Traditionally, the chicken-and-egg analogy is presented to illustrate an intractable problem. In this instance, and at this moment, the chicken and egg are economics and politics, and there is a real chance to bring them in alignment. As it becomes more obvious with each catastrophic flood, wildfire, that climate threat is here, now, the general understanding grows that action is needed, now. With that widespread recognition growing across our population, politicians respond by backing plans that will make a difference. Those plans are enabling economic opportunities that can show benefits to voters across the political spectrum. When the economic factors start to align with environmental advantage, and those benefits build upon one another in public perception, the momentum forward could extinguish the fossil fuel industry’s doubt machine. Ending the era of burning fuel on Earth as the source of progress, transitioning to using a far mightier source of ignition, a safe 93 million miles away, is possible. The time to turn toward the light is now.
saysfrank 